After Arizona was treated to a northern lights display in May, many stargazers and those who missed the spectacle are wondering when the aurora will be visible again.
Forecasters point to a group of sunspots responsible for the spectacular nationwide aurora display on May 10, which turned back into view of Earth. That potentially sets the stage for another spectacle, said the Federal Space Weather Prediction Center in Boulder, Colorado.
However, leading experts said it is still too early to confirm whether those sunspots will ignite the solar storms that can cause auroras here on Earth.
Here’s what you need to know about your next chance to see the northern lights and how to see them in Arizona.
When will the northern lights be visible in the United States?
Shawn Dahl, a senior forecaster for the Space Weather Prediction Center, said that although the group of sunspots known as Region 3697 has now returned to face Earth, it’s too early to tell if it will send another coronal mass ejections that can cause solar storms and auroras.
“We’re predicting things from 93 million miles away, so it’s very difficult. And our science is limited,” Dahl said. “We can do a pretty good job of predicting the probability that an explosion will occur, and if so, at what level if it might reach, and the same with radiation storms, but we have no way of knowing that a eruption is imminent This science does not exist and we also have no science to know when a CME will erupt from the sun.
Will the northern lights be visible in Arizona?
Maybe. The group of sunspots responsible for the vivid auroras of mid-May has once again rotated in front of Earth, but forecasters are not yet sure whether it will result in auroras. It will all depend on whether or not the sun emits a solar flare or coronal mass ejection towards Earth, causing geomagnetic storms and thus the aurora.
The strength of the storms would also affect visibility in Arizona. The aurora is stronger and more visible in the north, so solar flares or coronal mass ejections must be stronger to be seen further south.
Where is the best stargazing in Arizona?These 5 countries are at the top in 2024
Why is it so hard to predict space weather?
When exactly will the northern lights appear? Conditions are ripe for more aurora displays over the coming years, but experts say even the best forecasts can only be made accurately days or even hours in advance.
Unlike terrestrial weather, scientists forecasting space weather – which includes the aurora – must rely on observations of the sun, 93 million miles away, to make their predictions.
“There’s so much uncertainty, it makes forecasting difficult,” Bill Murtagh, program coordinator at the Space Weather Prediction Center, told USA TODAY last year.
Northern Lights in Arizona
It’s not unheard of to see the northern lights in Arizona. After sightings in 2023, Arizonans were treated to a particularly vivid celestial light show in mid-May.
The pink and purple rays, created by a series of coronal mass ejections from the sun that produced geomagnetic storms causing auroras, were visible across the state by those who found a dark spot and looked at the right time.
Arizonans looking to see storms should consider these tips:
- Go to a dark place for optimal viewing. It is essential to be in an area with minimal light pollution to see the aurora. Multiple Arizona cities were voted the best for stargazing in the US and would be the best places to see the aurora.
- Look north. It may seem obvious, but you have to look north to see the lights.
- Try looking for the aurora between 10pm and 2am Auroras are usually strongest during this time, although they may be visible in the evening and morning hours.
USA TODAY reporters Doyle Rice, Jeanine Santucci and Trevor Hughes contributed to this article.